An optimized prediction of solar resource by a numerical weather prediction model and photovoltaic technology evaluation for a semi-desert climate zone

Abstract

The doctoral thesis is framed in the field of solar resource energy prediction as well as the selection of adequate photovoltaic technology for a semi-desert specific region (south of Sonora-Mexico). The research is focused on the development of a methodology for the development of solar energy resource maps using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models validated with weather stations data base ranging between 3 to 8 years data. In order to optimize the calculation time, without prejudice of the sensitivity of the method is proposed to use a type of solar irradiation year, selected by identifying the most representative days from a database of 30 years. In the study seven cumulus parametrization are compared, which establish convective effects that indirectly affect the solar irradiation and directly the formation of hydrometeors in microphysics parameterization. The convective parameterization New Simple Arakawa-Schubert was the most appropriate for the region in two extreme seasons (summer and winter). In addition, a third test was performed to determine the response of the model in an intermediate year season (spring). The precision of the results obtained is high in comparison to previous results given in literature. The goodness of the results allows concluding that the meteorological model, with the selected parameterizations, could be used to develop a database of global horizontal irradiation in the selected region but also in regions with similar conditions. Finally, an appropriate selection of solar photovoltaic technologies based on different climate regions is proposed. For this reason, a comparative study of different technologies of photovoltaic solar modules (monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon (standard technology silicon and UMG – Upgraded Metallurgical Grade silicon) and CIS -Copper, indium and selenium) with special emphasis on response on high and low levels of solar irradiation.