Economía europea¿hacia el estancamiento secular?

Abstract

In this paper we seek to explain the slow process of adjustment and recovery of the European economy after the collapse of 2008 and the subsequent crisis of sovereign debt. We use three prominents concepts in the most recent macroeconomic knowledge: business cycle, balance-sheet recession, and secular stagnation. Our main argument is the recovery of the European economy is not only slow and fragile, because of the presence of a financial cycle and by balance-sheet recession effects, but also epoints to a trend of stagnation in the economic growth, accompanied by strong deflationary trends. We analyse the role of macroeconomic policies in recent years - especially the fiscal policy- in order to explain these negative trends. We conclude suggesting some possible strategies of public policy to adapt in an effective and balanced way to this situation: the rise in investment processes and other demand factors must be compatible with reducing debt levels, both the private and public sectors in a general and difficult context of trade-offs among the main macroeconomic objectives.