Sigatoka negra (Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) y seguridad alimentaria. Escenarios bioclimáticos en bananos bajo efecto del cambio climático en Ciego de Ávila, Cuba
- Hernández-Mansilla, Alexis Augusto
- Sorí-Gómez, Rogert
- Valentín-Pérez, Yadira
- López-Mayea, Aliana
- Córdova-García, Orlando
- Benedico-Rodríguez, Oscar
ISSN: 2308-3859, 2308-3867
Year of publication: 2016
Issue Title: Publicado - Noviembre 2016
Volume: 4
Issue: 2
Pages: 59-70
Type: Article
More publications in: Journal of the Selva Andina Biosphere
Abstract
The negative evidence of climate change of high importance for the future agricultural production and the need of foodsovereignty and security, impose to develop research to predict the phenology of plants and their pests, mainly those ofeconomic importance. The aim of this work is to interpret the epidemiological behavior of the black Sigatoka disease(Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet) in banana for the years 2020 and 2025 under the effects of climate change in Ciego deAvila. There were made bioclimatic scenarios using daily data of maximum temperature, minimum temperature andaccumulated rainfall of 14 days generated by the Regional Climatic Model "PRECIS Caribbean" with boundary conditions of the global model ECHAM - 4 for future climate projections under scenarios of emission A2 and B2. The keyindicators of this disease: "Sum of Speed " and the "Evolution state" of 4 leaves were obtained. The results show Sumsspeeds above 11000 thermo-physiological units, as well as a continuous and progressive increase in the "Evolution State"with values above 500 units during the analyzed years. We infers will occur an increase in the number of treatments andthe plant protection cost, which implies the need to draw integrated management measures that include agro-ecologicalprinciples, search for resistant varieties to replace those susceptible to the disease that are currently used and strengthenthe climate change adaptation and the resilience in the agricultural ecosystem.