Adaptation of small-scale fisheries to climate change

Resumo

There is broad evidence that climate change is having impacts on marine ecosystems around the world. Despite this evidence, little is known about the consequences of the impacts for the human communities that depend on these coastal systems. In other words, scientific knowledge about climate change from the social-ecological systems (SESs) perspective remains scarce. During recent years, an increasing number of studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on fishery-based livelihoods, identifying current and potential adaptation strategies, socio-economic implications and potential climate policies. Specifically, small-scale fisheries (SSF) are important for societies as they provide key social, cultural and economic benefits. More so than other fisheries, SSF are expected to be unequally impacted by climate change, with important implications for all of the livelihoods that they sustain. Indeed, beyond impacts, the scientific community highlights the importance of studying SSF and their sustainability, vulnerability and adaptation under climate change. Thus, although theory suggests that key social and social-ecological relationships influence individual behaviour when responding to impacts and when engaging in adaptation pathways, there is still little evidence for these interactions. The SES perspective aims to achieve sustainability in human-environmental contexts by considering the levels of complexity and the diversity of its operating components. However, adaptation is a dynamic process, and additional integration of a resilience perspective can allow us to approach such changing SES processes and to navigate through uncertainty. In addition to SES and resilience perspectives, the social justice perspective must be taken into account in order to prevent the risk of maladaptation and to ensure a fair adaptation process. Unfortunately, little is known about the specific drivers that affect the development of resilience pathways for fishers and fisheries more broadly. For these reasons, we urgently need to understand what adaptation means for fisheries SESs from a resilience perspective and how adaptation works under climate change. This will help us to (1) identify adaptive strategies and actions that help SSF overcome current and future climatic crises; and (2) avoid potential maladaptation outcomes. Specifically, this thesis focuses on conceptualizing adaptation, identifying gaps in the existing scientific knowledge and demonstrating recent theories about adaptive capacity and the network approach. It reports a participatory, bottom-up approach using qualitative (systematic literature review, focus groups, interviews, questionnaires) and quantitative methods (statistical models and analysis), in order to better understand the multidimensional process of fisheries adaptation to climate change. To address this main objective, four sets of specific research questions were formulated and integrated in each of the three main objectives of this thesis. Objective 1 contributes to the design of a fisheries SES adaptation framework with a resilience approach. The first research question (RQ1) is ¿Can we design a framework for fisheries SES climate change adaptation with a resilience perspective?¿. Objective 2 analyzes the SES components of SSF in SES, vulnerability and adaptation actions research. The second research question (RQ2) is "To what extent has research on climate change vulnerability and adaptation of SSF SES considered the full range of SES components?¿. Objective 3 identifies empirically the general adaptation pathway and the role of adaptive capacity in triggering responses to climate change impacts, exploring the early transformative individual behaviour in SSF. Two sets of research questions were designed for this purpose. For this third objective, the first set of research questions (RQ3) are "What are the response pathways that fishers follow under incremental climate change impact scenarios?¿, and "How do social-ecological network structures affect individual¿s responses?¿. The second set of research questions (RQ4) are ¿Under which impact scenarios does individual livelihood diversification take place?¿ and "How do adaptive capacity influences individual behaviour to engage in a transformative strategy, such as livelihood diversification?¿. In order to answer the research questions, this thesis presents four scientific articles (hereafter papers) included in Chapter 3. Paper 1 introduces an Adaptation Process Framework that tackles fisheries adaptation to climate change by a resilience approach. Paper 2 analyzes the current knowledge of SSF and SES sustainability, vulnerability and adaptation across disciplines. Paper 3 investigates the role of social and social-ecological ties (as a fundamental component of adaptive capacity and SES framework) in adaptation. Finally, Paper 4 explores transformation and demonstrates the significant role of adaptive capacity in livelihood diversification as an early transformative response. It is important to note that Paper 1 is based on a conceptualization of the social-ecological adaptation process in fisheries. By contrast, Paper 2 is a literature review of various social-ecological disciplines that analyze empirical SSF case studies in terms of sustainability, vulnerability and adaptation under climate change. Both of these papers are based on evidence collected worldwide. Finally, Papers 3 and 4 focus on a case study of a Galician SSF in order to empirically demonstrate novel and recent adaptation theories. For this, Paper 3 and Paper 4 use social survey data to apply statistical analysis and build multinomial models in order to obtain robust answers to the original research questions. Located in the north-west of Spain, the Galician fisheries have a key social, historical and economic role in the region. Galician coastal fisheries are constituted by 4,500 vessels that represents more than 40% of Spanish catches. Specifically, Galician SSF system is highly diverse in natural resources, fishing gear and regulations and human capital (70% categorized as men and 30% as women) organized into 63 institutional entities (Confrarías) that manage the marine extractive activities of the fishing communities. Generally, all 63 fisher guilds take part in a top-down governance system which comprises a combination of diverse management regimes (e.g. TURFs, TACs and ITQs). Under these management regimes, fishers can hold different fishing licenses depending on the type of target resources and the gears and practices used. Social diversity also is reflected in these SSF with different bonding fishing groups around fisheries. In this aspect, social relationships play a fundamental role in the Galician fisheries development. Some example of the relationships found in the Galician SSF are bonding ties (ties between same type of fishers), bridging ties (ties between different type of fishers), linking ties (ties between fishers and institutional actors), ties with informal leaders and social-ecological ties (ties between fishers and marine resources). Galician SSF were selected as a case study for Paper 3 and Paper 4 given (1) their nature as a coupled SES with a well-known cultural attachment in the marine environment, (2) the complex and diverse socio-political context of fisher guilds as the core of SSF communities and (3) the emerging evidence of the impacts of climate change on marine habitats. In other words, all of these reasons make Galician SSF a suitable case study for climate change adaptation research. Given the need in the relevant literature for a common-ground framework that analyzes the adaptation process across disciplines, Paper 1 introduces a novel Adaptation Process Framework of fisheries SESs facing climate change impacts from a resilience perspective. First, this paper provides a review of recent conceptual, theoretical and empirical evidence about responses of social systems, ecological systems and SESs to climate change. Specifically, the review focuses on the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries, sustainable SESs, vulnerability, adaptation and resilience theory and practice. Secondly, it conceptually develops the adaptation process in order to establish the underlying basis and mechanisms to clearly describe the reasoning that integrates the evidence obtained. Here, the adaptation pathways and the socialecological processes specifically described provide the rational explanation. This exercise of compiling and summarising information across disciplines contributes to building an integrated framework for describing the social-ecological behaviour of fisheries that are being affected by climate change, and it identifies key scientific gaps and questions for subsequent analysis. As a result of this scientific exercise, the Adaptation Process Framework aims to tackle fisheries¿ resilience to shifts in target species. This framework does this through the SES perspective and with particular emphasis on determining strategies and policy solutions under the contemporary climate change. The proposed framework covers both the environmental and social dimensions of the system, at the individual, collective and governance levels. It describes ecological changes due to species distribution shifts and impacts on fisheries activity, economy and their social system. In addition, the framework enables the identification of adaptation pathways, which range from remaining to transforming stages of adaptation, with their associated policy actions, risks and potential solutions. It provides a useful tool that serves as a point of convergence among disciplines and facilitates (1) an understanding of climate change impacts on SSF, (2) the generation of scientific knowledge about resilience in SESs, (3) decision making and (4) policy development. These results introduce a novel perspective regarding fisheries in times of the contemporary climate change and provide guidance for policy actions and potential solutions. This objective has been published in the international scientific journal One Earth (see Ojea et al., 2020 in Chapter 3). Paper 2 conducts a meticulous analysis across disciplines in order to identify (1) empirical scientific evidence, (2) remaining gaps in the scientific knowledge and (3) key aspects for SSF and SES adaptation. Through a systematic review of three relevant areas of the scientific literature (SES framework operationalizations, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-derived Vulnerability assessments and studies addressing the readiness of fishers to exit a declining fishery), this paper quantifies those aspects of the fishery system that were measured in the case studies and translates them to the SES framework language. This study also compares the geographical distribution and the coverage of SES components across disciplines, with a particular focus on the analysis of interactions within SSF. The research findings reported in Paper 2 led to recommendations for future understanding and analysis of climate change adaptation in SSF and SES. In particular, the results of the analysis show that Vulnerability assessments are the geographically most broadly operationalized set of studies. Actors (i.e., fishers) constitute the most commonly studied subsystem across frameworks, while Related Ecosystems are the least commonly studied sub-system. Across disciplines, seven second-tier variables of SES are still not empirically addressed in SSF. In this context, a broad array of adaptive capacity determinants such as cultural dependence (flexibility), education (learning), people¿s beliefs (socio-cognitive), cooperative behaviour (social organization) and gender and perceived inequality (competing concerns), all of which strongly influence the agency of individuals facing climate change, have been underused. To address this, six new first-tier variables are proposed for incorporation into the SES framework due their importance in the analysis of sustainability, vulnerability and adaptation in SSF. Surprisingly, Interactions subsystem - a key component of the adaptive capacity - are among the least-well covered subsystems within the SES framework in empirical vulnerability and adaptation studies, despite their crucial role in climate change adaptation. The types of interactions most commonly studied in SSF include those between Actors and Resource units and those between Actors and Governance systems. Findings were summarized in the following five needs in terms of lessons learnt, in order to guide climate change adaptation research: (1) increase the number and the geographical coverage of adaptation studies, (2) integrate the ecological dimension into adaptation studies, (3) incorporate social and cultural factors in adaptation studies, (4) consider interactions between sub-systems and scales and (5) apply the SES framework in climate change adaptation research. This chapter was published in the international scientific journal of Marine Policy (see Salgueiro-Otero et al., 2020 in Chapter 3). Paper 3 and Paper 4 apply and test novel theories and perspectives such as the Adaptation Process Framework, the network continuum framework and the Adaptive Capacity framework. For this purpose, more than 430 individual surveys were conducted in the Galician case study, specifically in nine different small-scale fishing communities covering the diversity of existing fisheries. After filtering the quality of the surveys conducted, the final number of suitable observations was reduced to 404. Data covering fishers¿ responses under 10 climate change impact scenarios (five increasing and five decreasing fishing-based income), adaptive capacity indicators and complementary information were collected in the survey. As this objective focuses on fishers¿ adaptation, the Adaptive Capacity theory has been chosen to build the models that empirically test the specific research questions related to Paper 3 and Paper 4. Focusing on the RQ3 (the role of network structures in adaptation), Paper 3 quantifies fishers¿ responses under hypothetical scenarios of climate change impacts and analyzes the statistical significance of the different pathways across scenarios. In addition, five multinomial multilevel logit mixed-effect models with robust variance estimates are fitted to explore the links between individual stated behaviour and adaptive capacity. All models were composed using the fishers¿ responses to hypothetical negative impact scenarios as a nominal dependent variable and adaptive capacity indicators as independent variables. In this case, one multinomial multilevel logit mixed-effect model was fitted for each hypothetical scenario with a resulting final sample size of 375 observations per model (due to missing values). A variance inflation factors analysis was also run to confirm that there were no problems related to multicollinearity among predictors. Results regarding RQ3 show that fishers under an increasing gradient of hypothetical climate change impact scenarios follow the general pathway of remaining in SSF with the business as usual behaviour (remain and cope) ¿ change gears and resources within SSF (adapt) ¿ diversify livelihoods out of SSF (early transformation) ¿ leave SSF (full transformation), provided by RQ1 in Paper 1. The results also demonstrate that communication-based bonding ties are significant and positive in relation to adaptation. However, trust-based bonding ties are significant and positive in relation to resistance to change. Fishers who develop bridging communication ties are more likely to make transformative and exit responses and those who communicate with informal leaders are prone to retaining the status quo. These novel results confirm previous findings on adaptation frameworks and social and risk theories. The insights provided by this study also strongly demonstrate the crucial role of social relationships in climate change adaptation of fisheries systems. These results may help to guide desirable policies for sustainable SES. The work regarding RQ3 is submitted and under review in the international scientific journal PNAS (see Salgueiro-Otero et al., 2021 in Chapter 3). Regarding RQ4, Paper 4 quantifies when fishers decide to diversify livelihoods in order to identify early transformations. Also, this paper aims to identify adaptive capacity determinants that enable and constrain early transformations. With this objective, the paper uses a multinomial multilevel logit mixed-effect model with robust variance estimates. The model was composed using the fisher¿s responses to hypothetical scenarios of climate change impacts as a nominal dependent variable and adaptive capacity indicators as independent variables. Regarding the dependent variable, the model considers all fisher¿s responses under the 10 positive and negative impact scenarios. In addition, a variance inflation factors analysis was run to confirm that there were no problems related to multicollinearity among predictors. Results for RQ4 show that livelihood diversification increases under climate change negative impacts. Values from the multinomial multilevel logit mixed-effect model indicate that, compared to remainers, bonding communication, bridging trust and perceived inequality are negatively related to diversification of livelihoods. On contrast, fishers who develop bridging communication, depend on several main marine resources and diversify livelihoods at the current time are positively related to the diversification strategy. When compared to those who choose to exit, those with trust-based linking ties, with high level of SES-knowledge, who already diversify livelihoods and fishers categorised as women are more likely to diversify. In this respect, fishers with greater fishing experience and perceived inequality are less likely to diversify livelihoods. These findings shed light on the role that adaptive capacity plays in SSF transformations. This research provides crucial information that can support not only sustainable fisheries but importantly contributes to the identification of specific key processes towards just and egalitarian marine systems. Results regarding RQ4 are submitted and under review in the international scientific Journal of Ecology and Society (see Salgueiro-Otero et al., 2021 in Chapter 3). From this comprehensive research, six relevant lines for further discussion can be extracted. First, the potential of the Adaptation Process Framework as an approach to addressing resilience to climate change and developing further research questions. Second, the network structures as conceptualizations of interactions between individual, collective and governance levels that contribute to adaptation at the SES scale. These interactions can provide relevant indicators of potential trade-offs and synergies that influence adaptation. Third, a people-centered research using an individual approach may help to quantify adaptive capacity determinants and potential trade-offs with adaptive actions. Fourth, the relevance of the analysis and prevention of inequality in times of climate change adaptation. Here some evidence regarding age, gender and perceived inequality is discussed. The overlap between unequal distribution of impacts, individual and collective adaptive capacities and human diversity produces trade-offs that may threat social justice for sustainable and adaptive fisheries. Fifth, the integration of a power perspective and inclusive methods in adaptation research in order to build just SESs. As power seems to have a significant role in climate change adaptation, the mechanism that legitimizes power must also be analyzed. In this context, further work is recommended to identify how power dynamics can enable adaptation and facilitate social-ecological sustainability. Sixth, and finally, this dissertation discusses the transferability of the Adaptation Process Framework with the SES concept as unit of change. In addition, based on the results and conclusions of this dissertation, this work provides policy and practice-oriented recommendations for the real world fisheries and fishing sector. Recommendations for fisheries policy and specific practices are described for cases where fisheries (1) need to be maintained in the current state, (2) need to adapt and (3) need to transform. This section also discusses key aspects to consider in cross-policies and practices and which ones can avoid socialecological traps. Overall, this dissertation proposes a novel theoretical Adaptation Process Framework and performs empirical tests to demonstrate the foundations and utility of the framework: (1) explaining real-world fisheries problems; (2) generating cutting-edge research questions; and (3) providing valuable insights that may benefit the design of policies to support fishers¿ adaptation to climate change. Although this work focuses on specific SSFs, the results have implications for fisheries more broadly, as well as for cross sectorial adaptation theory. In conclusion, the findings of this research can provide promising and novel questions in people-environment investigations facing profound crises that can greatly enrich interdisciplinary adaptation research.